Forecast-Time Information

These policies define what information is available when a forecast is made. They separate three concepts that are often mixed in macro forecasting code:

  • data revision/vintage regime: which version of the data is used;

  • publication lag: when each predictor x observation becomes usable;

  • same-period predictor access: whether x at the target date is allowed.

Frame availability is separate. missing_availability runs after the Layer 1 source frame exists and is documented in 4.1.7 Frame Availability.

Axis

Choices

Default / rule

information_set_type

final_revised_data, pseudo_oos_on_revised_data

Data revision/vintage regime. Default uses final revised data.

release_lag_rule

ignore_release_lag, fixed_lag_all_series, series_specific_lag

Publication lag rule. Default ignores publication lag; series_specific_lag requires leaf_config.release_lag_per_series.

contemporaneous_x_rule

forbid_same_period_predictors, allow_same_period_predictors

Same-period x rule. Default forbids target-date predictors; allow_same_period_predictors is an oracle/data-leak benchmark.

Visibility rule:

  • information_set_type and release_lag_rule are hidden by default for custom_source_policy: custom_panel_only, because macroforecast cannot infer a FRED vintage or publication-lag discipline from an arbitrary custom file.

  • contemporaneous_x_rule remains visible for custom-only studies because it is a supervised-learning alignment rule, not a FRED metadata rule.

  • Imported custom-only recipes with non-default FRED timing choices keep those axes visible so the route can be inspected instead of silently dropped.

Boundary rule:

  • information_set_type is about revisions/vintages. It answers whether the frame uses final revised data or a pseudo-real-time restriction on revised data.

  • release_lag_rule is about publication timing. It answers whether an observation dated at month/quarter t is already known at the forecast origin.

  • contemporaneous_x_rule controls whether x_{t+h} can be used when forecasting y_{t+h}. Allowing it is an oracle benchmark unless the research design is explicitly nowcasting with contemporaneous indicators.

  • missing_availability is not a forecast-time information axis. It is a source-frame availability policy after source loading, raw-source quality handling, and official transforms.

YAML:

path:
  1_data_task:
    fixed_axes:
      information_set_type: final_revised_data
      release_lag_rule: ignore_release_lag
      contemporaneous_x_rule: forbid_same_period_predictors