Default Profiles

Defaults are part of the public contract. They must be named, versioned, and written to the manifest.

Draft profile:

macroforecast-default-v1

Current MVP profile:

Choice

Value

information_set_type

final_revised_data

target_structure

single_target

framework

expanding

benchmark_family

zero_change

feature_builder

target_lag_features

model_family

ar

primary_metric

mse

stat_test

none

importance_method

none

preprocessing

dataset t-code transforms only, no extra preprocessing

sample period

explicit start and end required

data vintage

current vintage when omitted

reproducibility_mode

seeded_reproducible

failure_policy

fail_fast

compute_mode

serial

random_seed

42

This default still writes legacy-compatible feature_builder=target_lag_features; the compiler also records canonical Layer 2 block/runtime provenance. New full recipes may use explicit feature blocks directly.

The profile also keeps the current Layer 3 compatibility names: model_family=ar means candidate forecast generator family ar, and benchmark_family=zero_change means the zero_change generator is assigned the benchmark/baseline role.

Frequency resolution:

  • fred_md means monthly.

  • fred_qd means quarterly.

  • fred_sd alone requires frequency.

  • fred_md+fred_sd means monthly.

  • fred_qd+fred_sd means quarterly.

  • monthly data converted to quarterly uses a 3-month average with a warning.

  • quarterly data converted to monthly uses linear interpolation with a warning.

The MVP profile is intentionally narrow. It should expand only after the Experiment API and layer audit are stable.

The final profile should also specify:

  • default information set

  • default sample split

  • default benchmark

  • default model

  • default preprocessing

  • default metric

  • default statistical test behavior

  • default importance behavior

  • default artifact policy

  • default reproducibility mode

Design requirements:

  • no hidden defaults in artifacts

  • old default profiles remain reproducible

  • changing a default profile is a versioned change

  • users can inspect and override defaults