fred_sd_variable_group

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Axis fred_sd_variable_group on sub-layer l1_d (layer l1).

Sub-layer

l1_d

Axis metadata

  • Default: 'all_sd_variables'

  • Sweepable: False

  • Status: operational

Operational status summary

  • Operational: 12 option(s)

  • Future: 0 option(s)

Options

all_sd_variables – operational

All FRED-SD state-level variable categories.

FRED-SD variable category: Default. Includes every variable category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Use as the broadest possible predictor block; subset via sd_variable_selection if specific filtering is needed.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Default; broadest predictor block.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: labor_market_core, employment_sector, income

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

labor_market_core – operational

Core labour-market series (employment, unemployment, hours).

FRED-SD variable category: Includes nonfarm employment, unemployment rate, labour-force participation, and average hours. Standard labour-market battery used in most state-level macroeconomic studies.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Labour-market focused studies; Sahm-rule recession analysis at state level.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, employment_sector, income

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

employment_sector – operational

Sectoral employment series (NAICS supersector breakdowns).

FRED-SD variable category: Sectoral employment counts (manufacturing, construction, services, government, etc.). Useful when industry mix explains target variation.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Industry-level employment studies; structural-transformation analysis.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, income

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

gsp_output – operational

Gross state product / output series.

FRED-SD variable category: BEA gross state product (GSP), the state-level analogue of national GDP. Released quarterly with publication lag; main aggregate state-level output measure.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Aggregate output studies; state-level GDP forecasting.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

housing – operational

State housing series (permits, prices, starts).

FRED-SD variable category: Building permits, housing starts, house-price indices. Leading indicator of state economic activity; central to any housing-cycle analysis.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Housing-cycle studies; foreclosure / mortgage-market analysis.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

trade – operational

Trade / commerce series.

FRED-SD variable category: Retail sales, wholesale trade, port activity. State-level trade-flow indicators where available.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Trade-flow studies; port-region economic analysis.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

income – operational

Personal income / earnings series.

FRED-SD variable category: Includes per-capita personal income, total state income, and components (wages, transfers, dividends). Slow-moving but persistent predictor of state economic activity.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Consumer / household income studies; transfer-payment analysis.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

direct_analog_high_confidence – operational

Variables with direct national analog (high-confidence cross-frequency join).

FRED-SD variable category: FRED-SD variables that map directly onto a known FRED-MD / -QD national series at the same definition. The cleanest subset for cross-frequency studies that need national-state correspondence.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Cross-frequency studies needing direct national-state mapping.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

provisional_analog_medium – operational

Variables with provisional national analog (medium-confidence join).

FRED-SD variable category: FRED-SD variables that approximately map onto a national series but with some definition mismatch (coverage gap, methodology change, etc.). Use with caution; the join is provisional.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Sensitivity analyses on the analog mapping.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

semantic_review_outputs – operational

Outputs of the FRED-SD semantic review process.

FRED-SD variable category: Variables flagged through the FRED-SD semantic-review pipeline (audit-trail diagnostics produced by the FRED-SD construction process). Mostly used for diagnostic provenance, not as predictors.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Audit-trail diagnostics for the FRED-SD construction process.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

no_reliable_analog – operational

Variables without a reliable national analog.

FRED-SD variable category: FRED-SD-only series that have no clean correspondence to a FRED-MD / -QD national variable. Useful for state-only studies that exclude national benchmarks.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

State-only studies; spatial-econometric panels that ignore national aggregates.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

custom_sd_variable_group – operational

User-supplied variable list (leaf_config.custom_sd_variables).

FRED-SD variable category: Bespoke variable selections – e.g. ‘manufacturing + trade only’ or ‘a specific BLS series list’. Reads the explicit variable list from leaf_config.custom_sd_variables.

Restricts the predictor block to series tagged with this category in the FRED-SD groups manifest. Combine with fred_sd_state_group to control geography and with sd_variable_selection to restrict further within this category.

When to use

Bespoke variable selections not captured by built-in groupings.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

  • McCracken & Ng (2020) ‘FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research’, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Related options: all_sd_variables, labor_market_core, employment_sector

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.