regime_estimation_temporal_rule

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Axis regime_estimation_temporal_rule on sub-layer l1_g (layer l1).

Sub-layer

l1_g (gated)

Axis metadata

  • Default: 'expanding_window_per_origin'

  • Sweepable: False

  • Status: operational

Operational status summary

  • Operational: 3 option(s)

  • Future: 0 option(s)

Options

expanding_window_per_origin – operational

Re-estimate regimes on every expanding window.

Default for estimated_* regime methods. Avoids look-ahead by re-fitting the regime model on data through each origin date.

When to use

Default; OOS-safe regime estimation.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

Related options: rolling_window_per_origin, block_recompute

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

rolling_window_per_origin – operational

Re-estimate regimes on a fixed-length rolling window.

Uses the most-recent params.window observations only. Useful when regime structure drifts over time.

When to use

Drifting / non-stationary regime structure.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

Related options: expanding_window_per_origin, block_recompute

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.

block_recompute – operational

Re-estimate every leaf_config.regime_recompute_interval origins.

Cheap approximation to per-origin re-fits. Caches the regime classification between recompute boundaries.

When to use

Long sweeps where per-origin regime re-fits are infeasible.

References

  • macroforecast design Part 1, L1: ‘data definition is the recipe layer that pins source, target, geography, and horizon – everything downstream branches off these choices.’

Related options: expanding_window_per_origin, rolling_window_per_origin

Last reviewed 2026-05-05 by macroforecast author.